Beyond Extrapolation — Using Additional Inputs to Improve Forecast Accuracy
One of the biggest challenges in forecasting is knowing how to create accurate forecasts that consider all the variables that could impact demand.
Many demand planners begin their forecasting process by using univariate (single input) extrapolation models. This involves using demand history to generate a statistical forecast for each item they want to forecast. Forecast Pro users are able to do this automatically by relying on Expert Selection to create these statistical forecasts.
This is an excellent starting point, however these models don’t always capture the whole story, including relationships between variables and events that move around the calendar. Leveraging additional inputs makes it possible to forecast these relationships and events in order to improve forecast accuracy.
In this free one-hour webinar Eric Stellwagen will explore different types of inputs and explain when they can add value. He will discuss the following inputs and illustrate how they are applied using Forecast Pro:
– Weighting Transformations
– Analogy Series
– Event Schedules
– Explanatory Variables
– Dummy Variables
Can’t attend the live webinar? Register for the session and we will notify you via email when the recording is available for on-demand viewing.
About the speaker
Eric Stellwagen is the co-founder of Business Forecast Systems, Inc. (BFS) and the co-author of the Forecast Pro software product line.
With more than 30 years of expertise in the field, he regularly presents workshops and publishes on the topic of business forecasting, and is widely recognized as a leading educator on the subject. Drawing upon his extensive consulting experience helping leading organizations to address their forecasting challenges, Eric infuses his classes with practical approaches and uses real-world data to illustrate concepts. Eric served on the board of directors of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) for 12 years and is currently serving on the practitioner advisory board of Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting.
